Hurricane season: June through October/November
Mon, 04 Aug 2025 07:22:19 GMT
Source: NHC Atlantic
More info and current maps
534 ABNT20 KNHC 040533 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Storm Dexter, located over the western Atlantic Ocean. Central Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa later today. Thereafter, some gradual development of the wave is possible, and a tropical depression could form late this week while it moves generally west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. Off the Southeastern United States: A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form in a couple of days a few hundred miles off the coast of the southeastern United States. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the middle or latter part of the week as the system drifts to the west or northwest. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Dexter are issued under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Dexter are issued under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4. $$ Forecaster Blake
...TROPICAL STORM DEXTER FORMS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... ...FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE U.S. COAST AND STAY NORTH OF BERMUDA... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Aug 03 the center of Dexter was located near 34.3, -69.4 with movement ENE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 03 2025785 WTNT34 KNHC 040241 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dexter Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042025 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 03 2025 ...TROPICAL STORM DEXTER FORMS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... ...FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE U.S. COAST AND STAY NORTH OF BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.3N 69.4W ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM WNW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dexter was located near latitude 34.3 North, longitude 69.4 West. Dexter is moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A faster east-northeastward or northeastward motion is expected through early Tuesday, followed by a slower motion Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Dexter is likely to become post-tropical by Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 04 2025958 WTNT24 KNHC 040242 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEXTER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042025 0300 UTC MON AUG 04 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 69.4W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 120SE 0SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS.... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 69.4W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 69.9W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 35.1N 67.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 36.4N 65.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 37.7N 63.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 38.5N 61.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 39.0N 59.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 39.3N 56.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 40.5N 50.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.3N 69.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 03 2025923 WTNT44 KNHC 040242 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Dexter Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042025 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 03 2025 The area of low pressure located several hundred miles off the coast of North Carolina has been producing persistent deep convection for much of the day, and it appears to have separated from the frontal zone from which it formed. Although surface troughing still extends northeast and southwest of the low itself, model analyses show that the low is now located southeast of the strongest temperature and moisture gradients, indicating that it is no longer frontal and has made the transition to a tropical storm. The low-level center is located on the southwestern edge of the deep convection due to moderate southwesterly shear. Maximum winds are estimated to be 40 kt based on a very recent ASCAT pass, and the cyclone is therefore being designated as Tropical Storm Dexter. The initial motion is east-northeastward, or 070/10 kt, with Dexter embedded within mid-latitude westerly flow on the northwestern side of the subtropical ridge. Remaining north of the ridge, Dexter is expected to move on a northeasterly or east-northeasterly trajectory for the next 3-4 days. While there is not much cross-track spread among the guidance, there are some speed differences, most notably with the GFS showing Dexter getting trapped beneath the ridge and meandering for a couple of days. The NHC track forecast goes with the more progressive solution, and is closest to the HCCA and GDM ensemble mean. The moderate shear currently affecting Dexter is expected to increase to over 20 kt in 12-24 hours, and then to about 30 kt in 36-48 hours. As a result, not much strengthening is anticipated. Much of the intensity guidance shows a fairly steady intensity between 40-50 kt through 72 hours, and the NHC forecast therefore takes the middle of the road and shows a peak of 45 kt. Dexter is likely to be post-tropical by 60 hours, if not sooner, as the stronger shear strips the storm's convection away. The bulk of the global models suggest it could then become extratropical again by day 4 and then be absorbed by a front by day 5, but there is a lot of uncertainty in that forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 34.3N 69.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 35.1N 67.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 36.4N 65.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 37.7N 63.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 38.5N 61.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 06/1200Z 39.0N 59.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 07/0000Z 39.3N 56.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 08/0000Z 40.5N 50.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 04 2025000 FONT14 KNHC 040242 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEXTER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042025 0300 UTC MON AUG 04 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEXTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 6 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BERG
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 04 Aug 2025 02:44:31 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 04 Aug 2025 03:21:53 GMT
We are frequently asked: How are we supposed to behave as a tourist
when we get surprised on the island?
Two simple rules:
1. Stay home.
2. Follow the orders of the Civil Protection authorities.
All our Casas have a solid construction base, none is made of wood.
Officially a hurricane starts when wind speed exceeds 118 Km/hour. But even at 50 Km/h persons are advised to seek protection.
Mercedes and Frank 
