Hurricane season: June through October/November
Fri, 22 Sep 2023 15:40:22 GMT
Source: NHC Atlantic
More info and current maps
000 ABNT20 KNHC 221153 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Nigel, located over the northeast Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen, located over the southwestern Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL90): Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low pressure located about 600 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to show signs of organization. Further development is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph. The system is then expected to turn west-northwestward early next week as it moves over the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. && Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. Additional information on Nigel can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and- sea/high-seas-forecast. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
...STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE OUTER BANKS AND ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF THE TIDAL POTOMAC AND ALBEMARLE SOUND... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA... As of 11:00 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 the center of Sixteen was located near 32.3, -75.6 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023000 WTNT31 KNHC 221451 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023 1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 ...STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE OUTER BANKS AND ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF THE TIDAL POTOMAC AND ALBEMARLE SOUND... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.3N 75.6W ABOUT 255 MI...405 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Watch has been upgraded to a Storm Surge Warning for Ocracoke Inlet to Duck, North Carolina, the Tidal Potomac south of Colonial Beach, and portions of the western Albemarle Sound. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia * Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach, Virginia * Neuse and Pamlico Rivers * Portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cape Fear, North Carolina to Fenwick Island, Delaware * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds * Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island * Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Surf City, North Carolina to Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina * Remainder of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 75.6 West. The system is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A north to north-northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the low will approach the coast of North Carolina tonight, and then move across eastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, and the Delmarva Peninsula Saturday and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast before landfall, and the low is expected to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of North Carolina. Regardless of whether it becomes a tropical storm, the system is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km) from the center. NOAA buoy 41025 at Diamond Shoals, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a gust of 51 mph (83 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for this system can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Neuse and Bay Rivers...3-5 ft Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...3-5 ft Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach...2-4 ft Surf City, NC to Chincoteague, VA...2-4 ft Albemarle Sound...2-4 ft South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC...1-3 ft Chincoteague, VA to Manasquan Inlet, NJ...1-3 ft Upper Chesapeake Bay...1-3 ft Delaware Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are reaching portions of the North Carolina coast within the warning area and will spread northward through Saturday. RAINFALL: The system is forecast to produce 3 to 5 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts of 7 inches across portions of eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia from today into Saturday. Across remaining portions of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall are forecast from later today into Sunday. This rainfall may produce flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts. SURF: Swells generated by this system will affect much of the east coast of the United States through this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible beginning tonight through Saturday for portions of the mid-Atlantic Coast. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023424 WTNT21 KNHC 221450 TCMAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162023 1500 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 75.6W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......240NE 0SE 60SW 210NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 160SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 75.6W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 75.5W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 33.2N 76.3W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 20SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...240NE 80SE 80SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 34.9N 76.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 36.8N 77.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 38.3N 77.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 39.3N 76.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.3N 75.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 22/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023000 WTNT41 KNHC 221453 TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023 1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 Surface observations indicate the low pressure system off the southeast U.S. coast is deepening this morning. Recent pressure and wind data from NOAA buoy 41002 suggest the pressure has fallen to around 996 mb. While surface analyses indicate there is still a front in close proximity to the low, deep convection has become more concentrated to the north of the center. In fact, GOES-16 1-min visible imagery suggests the low-level center is re-forming closer to the convection. The broad wind field is asymmetric, with the strongest observed winds occurring to the north and west of the frontal feature. A NOAA Saildrone sampling the system reported a sustained wind of 40 kt and a gust around 50 kt earlier this morning. Based on the available observations, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon. The initial motion of the cyclone is just west of due north (350/10 kt). The system is forecast to move north-northwestward to northward through Saturday along the west side of a subtropical ridge over the western and central Atlantic. This motion will take the center of the cyclone inland over eastern North Carolina on Saturday morning and over the Mid-Atlantic region Saturday night and Sunday. The track guidance is in good agreement for this forecast. Based on the slight northward adjustment to the initial position, the updated NHC forecast is slightly faster than the previous one, showing the cyclone center just inland in 24 h. Based on recent satellite and observational trends, the cyclone appears likely to strengthen during the next 12 h over the warm Gulf Stream waters. The more organized convective structure should also facilitate its transition to a tropical storm during the next 6-12 h as it starts to become separated from its frontal features and develops a smaller inner core. The near-term intensity forecast has been bumped up slightly (55 kt) before the system moves inland early Saturday. After landfall, the system is expected to weaken due to the negative influences of land interaction, drier air, and strong upper-level winds. This forecast shows extratropical transition by 48 h with dissipation by 72 h, in good agreement with the GFS and ECMWF models. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the southeastern and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts within the Tropical Storm Warning area today into Saturday night. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation over portions of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers, the lower James River, and the lower Chesapeake Bay, where Storm Surge Warnings are in place. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials. 3. Heavy rainfall from this system could produce flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts across portions of the Mid-Atlantic states from North Carolina to New Jersey through Sunday. 4. Swells generated by this system will affect much of the U.S. east coast through the weekend, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 32.3N 75.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 23/0000Z 33.2N 76.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 23/1200Z 34.9N 76.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 36H 24/0000Z 36.8N 77.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 24/1200Z 38.3N 77.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 25/0000Z 39.3N 76.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023000 FONT11 KNHC 221452 PWSAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162023 1500 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BALTIMORE MD 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 8(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) DOVER DE 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 10(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) WASHINGTON DC 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 11(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X 13(13) 9(22) 5(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 3 18(21) 10(31) 4(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PAX RIVER NAS 34 1 7( 8) 21(29) 8(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) WALLOPS CDA 34 10 19(29) 14(43) 2(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X 6( 6) 11(17) 5(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) RICHMOND VA 34 3 23(26) 31(57) 4(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62) RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DANVILLE VA 34 3 13(16) 4(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) NORFOLK NAS 34 12 39(51) 17(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) NORFOLK NAS 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK VA 34 13 42(55) 14(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) OCEANA NAS VA 34 34 30(64) 10(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ELIZABETH CTY 34 47 34(81) 5(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GREENSBORO NC 34 3 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) RALEIGH NC 34 22 31(53) 2(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) ROCKY MT NC 34 49 35(84) 4(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) ROCKY MT NC 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 34 82 11(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) CAPE HATTERAS 50 1 19(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) FAYETTEVILLE 34 55 12(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) CHARLOTTE NC 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 97 3(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHERRY PT NC 50 1 24(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) CHERRY PT NC 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW RIVER NC 34 95 4(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW RIVER NC 50 7 44(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) NEW RIVER NC 64 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 34 95 4(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOREHEAD CITY 50 6 45(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SURF CITY NC 34 94 4(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) SURF CITY NC 50 4 24(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) SURF CITY NC 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) WILMINGTON NC 34 96 2(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) WILMINGTON NC 50 1 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BALD HEAD ISL 34 92 2(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) BALD HEAD ISL 50 3 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) FLORENCE SC 34 15 4(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) LITTLE RIVER 34 70 3(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) MYRTLE BEACH 34 58 4(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) GEORGETOWN SC 34 28 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) CHARLESTON SC 34 16 3(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 6 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER REINHART
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2023 14:54:27 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2023 15:22:40 GMT
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2023 15:26:47 GMT
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2023 14:55:02 GMT
Issued at 1120 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023
Issued at 1126 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023
Issued at 1127 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023
Issued at 1129 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023
Issued at 1132 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023
...NIGEL BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM... As of 9:00 AM GMT Fri Sep 22 the center of Nigel was located near 46.3, -32.6 with movement NE at 37 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
Issued at 900 AM GMT Fri Sep 22 2023000 WTNT35 KNHC 220834 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Nigel Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023 900 AM GMT Fri Sep 22 2023 ...NIGEL BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM... SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...46.3N 32.6W ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM NNW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 37 MPH...59 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Nigel was located near latitude 46.3 North, longitude 32.6 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 37 mph (59 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. A slower northward or north-northwestward motion is expected this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023147 WTNT25 KNHC 220833 TCMAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NIGEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152023 0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.3N 32.6W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 32 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 90NE 110SE 80SW 60NW. 34 KT.......180NE 200SE 190SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 300SE 480SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.3N 32.6W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 45.4N 34.3W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 48.8N 27.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 100SE 70SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 240SE 200SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 53.0N 23.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 50NW. 34 KT...210NE 260SE 200SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 56.4N 23.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...270NE 300SE 200SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 46.3N 32.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Issued at 900 AM GMT Fri Sep 22 2023000 WTNT45 KNHC 220834 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Nigel Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023 900 AM GMT Fri Sep 22 2023 Nigel has completed its transition to an extra-tropical cyclone this morning. Convection from earlier has waned, and is well displaced from the exposed low-level center. Based on a blend of an earlier partial ASCAT pass and subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to 60 kt for this advisory. The system is encountering very strong vertical wind shear and ocean temperatures below 20 degrees Celsius. The system is forecast to continue to gradually weaken over the next couple of days. However, the system will remain a strong extra-tropical cyclone with an expanding wind field. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies near the model consensus. Nigel continues to race northeastward at 32 kt. A northeastward motion is forecast to continue the next day or so, as it remains in the flow along the southern edge of a deep mid-latitude trough. Afterwards, Nigel should rotate around the eastern side of a large extratropical cyclone over the North Atlantic, with the two extratropical systems merging in about 48 h. The model guidance remains in fairly good agreement, and the NHC forecast lies in the center of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 46.3N 32.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 22/1800Z 48.8N 27.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 23/0600Z 53.0N 23.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 23/1800Z 56.4N 23.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023000 FONT15 KNHC 220834 PWSAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NIGEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152023 0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NIGEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 46.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KELLY
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2023 08:36:47 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2023 09:22:50 GMT
We are frequently asked: How are we supposed to behave as a tourist
when we get surprised on the island?
Two simple rules:
1. Stay home.
2. Follow the orders of the Civil Protection authorities.
All our Casas have a solid construction base, none is made of wood.
Officially a hurricane starts when wind speed exceeds 118 Km/hour. But even at 50 Km/h persons are advised to seek protection.
Mercedes and Frank 
