Hurricane season: June through October/November
Fri, 10 Oct 2025 18:53:53 GMT
Source: NHC Atlantic
More info and current maps
000 ABNT20 KNHC 101715 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Jerry, located north of the northern Leeward Islands, and on Subtropical Storm Karen, located over the northeastern Atlantic. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. && Public Advisories on Subtropical Storm Karen are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Subtropical Storm Karen are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. $$ Forecaster Berg
...KAREN CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 3:00 PM GMT Fri Oct 10 the center of Karen was located near 46.3, -31.2 with movement NE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Issued at 300 PM GMT Fri Oct 10 2025000 WTNT31 KNHC 101443 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112025 300 PM GMT Fri Oct 10 2025 ...KAREN CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...46.3N 31.2W ABOUT 610 MI...985 KM NNW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 46.3 North, longitude 31.2 West. The storm is moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a faster northeastward motion is expected tonight into Saturday. Recent satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through tonight, and the system is expected to become a post-tropical low tonight or early Saturday and open into a trough soon thereafter. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Brown
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 10 2025000 WTNT21 KNHC 101443 TCMAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112025 1500 UTC FRI OCT 10 2025 SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.3N 31.2W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. 4 M SEAS.... 45NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.3N 31.2W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 45.7N 31.6W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 47.9N 29.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 51.4N 28.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 46.3N 31.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Issued at 300 PM GMT Fri Oct 10 2025000 WTNT41 KNHC 101443 TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112025 300 PM GMT Fri Oct 10 2025 There has been little change to Karen's structure or intensity since the previous advisory. A curved band of convection is located around the northwestern portion of the cyclone and an 1110 UTC ASCAT pass detected peak winds of 38 kt. Therefore, the intensity will remain 40 kt for this advisory, which is also in line with the latest TAFB classification of ST2.5. The storm is moving northeastward at a slightly faster forward speed of 11 kt. Karen's should turn north-northeast and continue to accelerate ahead of a deep layer trough during the next 12 to 24 hours. The NHC track forecast is near the middle of the tightly clustered guidance and is essentially an update of the previous official forecast. Karen is forecast to move over even cooler waters during the next 12-24 hours and simulated satellite imagery from the global models indicated that the convection is likely to wane later today and tonight. Therefore, some weakening is indicated and the system should become post-tropical in 12 hours, if not sooner. Shortly thereafter, Karen is forecast to open up into a trough and become absorbed by an approaching frontal system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 46.3N 31.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 47.9N 29.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 11/1200Z 51.4N 28.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 10 2025000 FONT11 KNHC 101443 PWSAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112025 1500 UTC FRI OCT 10 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 46.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 10 Oct 2025 14:46:13 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 10 Oct 2025 15:27:38 GMT
...JERRY'S CENTER PULLING AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS BUT FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Oct 10 the center of Jerry was located near 20.2, -63.4 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 10 2025000 WTNT35 KNHC 101441 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 10 2025 ...JERRY'S CENTER PULLING AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS BUT FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 63.4W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM N OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 63.4 West. Jerry is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected by this evening, with that motion continuing through Sunday. A turn toward the northeast and east-northeast is forecast Sunday night and Monday. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter and satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Through today, 4 to 6 inches of rain are expected across the island of Barbuda. Elsewhere across the Leeward and Virgin Islands, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected. This rainfall brings a risk of flash flooding, especially in urban areas and in steep terrain. For portions of Puerto Rico, moisture associated with Jerry may result in up to 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated 6 inches possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Jerry, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting the Leeward Islands, Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. These swells are expected to spread toward the rest of the Greater Antilles today and tonight. Please consult products from your local weather office for more information. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 10 2025000 WTNT25 KNHC 101441 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102025 1500 UTC FRI OCT 10 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 63.4W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......140NE 160SE 0SW 0NW. 4 M SEAS....275NE 210SE 60SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 63.4W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 63.3W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 22.1N 63.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...130NE 150SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.4N 63.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 140SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 26.9N 63.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 29.2N 62.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 30.8N 61.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 31.4N 59.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 30.4N 54.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 30.8N 47.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 100SW 70NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 63.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 10 2025000 WTNT45 KNHC 101442 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 10 2025 Jerry is not a healthy tropical storm this morning. The low-level circulation, as seen in satellite imagery and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data, is elongated in a southeast-northwest direction with most of the associated deep convection displaced well to the south-southeast. The current intensity is held at 45 kt, based on a maximum 850-mb flight-level wind of 54 kt measured by the reconnaissance aircraft and recent ASCAT data. All of the tropical-storm-force winds appears to be within the eastern semicircle. With the center not all that well defined, the current motion estimate of northwestward (325 degrees) at 14 kt is a bit uncertain. Jerry is expected to turn northward later today as it moves around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge, with that trajectory continuing through early Sunday. Then, a sharp northeastward and eastward turn is expected by Sunday night and Monday as Jerry becomes embedded in mid-latitude westerly flow. The NHC track forecast closely follows the HCCA consensus aid during that period and is not too different from the previous prediction. On days 4 and 5, the official forecast has been nudged southward a bit based on the latest model trends. Jerry continues to move in a direction directly into the shear vector, and this orientation is unlikely to change at least for the next 48 hours. After 48 hours, the storm's motion and shear vector become more aligned, but then the storm will be moving over more marginal sea surface temperatures and into a more stable atmosphere. As a result, the intensity guidance has continued to trend downward. The NHC forecast now only shows the possibility of some slight strengthening, but overall the intensity is nearly flatlined through day 5. Thickness fields from the European, UKMET, and Canadian models suggest that Jerry could start to become entangled in a frontal boundary by Monday, and the Google DeepMind model loses a large number of its ensemble members by Tuesday. Therefore, the NHC forecast now shows Jerry becoming extratropical by Wednesday, if not sooner. Only the GFS keeps Jerry as a tropical cyclone through day 5. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands, British Virgin Islands, U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through today, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in urban areas and in steep terrain. 2. Swells generated by Jerry are affecting the Leeward Islands, Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. These swells are expected to spread toward the rest of the Greater Antilles today and tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 20.2N 63.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 22.1N 63.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 24.4N 63.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 26.9N 63.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 29.2N 62.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 13/0000Z 30.8N 61.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 31.4N 59.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 14/1200Z 30.4N 54.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 15/1200Z 30.8N 47.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 10 2025000 FONT15 KNHC 101442 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102025 1500 UTC FRI OCT 10 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BERG
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 10 Oct 2025 14:45:36 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 10 Oct 2025 15:22:26 GMT
We are frequently asked: How are we supposed to behave as a tourist
when we get surprised on the island?
Two simple rules:
1. Stay home.
2. Follow the orders of the Civil Protection authorities.
All our Casas have a solid construction base, none is made of wood.
Officially a hurricane starts when wind speed exceeds 118 Km/hour. But even at 50 Km/h persons are advised to seek protection.
Mercedes and Frank 
