Hurricane season: June through October/November
Fri, 31 Oct 2025 21:06:16 GMT
Source: NHC Atlantic
More info and current maps
000 ABNT20 KNHC 311708 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Oct 31 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center has issued the final advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa, located about midway between Bermuda and Cape Race, Newfoundland. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. $$ Forecaster Hagen
...MELISSA BECOMES A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Oct 31 the center of Melissa was located near 39.0, -60.5 with movement NE at 48 mph. The minimum central pressure was 973 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 31 2025000 WTNT33 KNHC 311442 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa Advisory Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 31 2025 ...MELISSA BECOMES A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.0N 60.5W ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM NNE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 48 MPH...78 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: None. A brief period of heavy rain and gusty winds is possible over the southern Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland tonight. For more information on impacts in Canada, see the Canadian Hurricane Center website at https://weather.gc.ca/hurricane/index_e.html DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa was located near latitude 39.0 North, longitude 60.5 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 48 mph (78 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue into Saturday, followed by a gradual slowdown and turn toward the east-northeast later this weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to pass to the southeast of the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland as a post-tropical cyclone tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Gusty winds are possible over the southern Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland tonight. RAINFALL: A brief period of heavy rain is possible over the southern Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Melissa will continue to affect portions of the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, Bermuda, the Northeastern United States coast and portions of Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Hagen
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 31 2025000 WTNT23 KNHC 311441 TCMAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025 1500 UTC FRI OCT 31 2025 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N 60.5W AT 31/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 42 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 140SE 90SW 30NW. 34 KT.......180NE 240SE 200SW 90NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 360SE 480SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N 60.5W AT 31/1500Z AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.5N 62.1W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 43.5N 55.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 70SE 50SW 0NW. 50 KT... 90NE 140SE 100SW 0NW. 34 KT...200NE 300SE 290SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 49.4N 48.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 80NE 130SE 90SW 0NW. 34 KT...210NE 390SE 290SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 53.2N 41.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 110SE 80SW 0NW. 34 KT...200NE 390SE 290SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 55.0N 35.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 70SE 50SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 390SE 300SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 56.2N 29.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 300SE 240SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 57.5N 24.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 210SE 210SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 60.5N 16.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 130SE 0SW 0NW. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.0N 60.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER HAGEN
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 31 2025000 WTNT43 KNHC 311443 TCDAT3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa Discussion Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 31 2025 Melissa no longer possesses organized convection, and is now merging with a warm front extending eastward and a cold front extending toward the southwest. Therefore, Melissa is now a post-tropical cyclone. Melissa still has hurricane-force winds, especially in the southeastern semicircle, as shown in Thursday evening ASCAT data and also shown in the latest global model fields for the current time of 15Z. The initial intensity is lowered slightly to 75 kt, mainly based on forecast continuity. Large swells from Melissa are spreading over much of the western Atlantic, resulting in hazardous marine conditions in this region. The post-tropical cyclone is racing northeastward, or 40 degrees at 42 kt. This motion should continue into Saturday within the flow ahead of an upper-level trough. Track guidance is in excellent agreement that the center of post-tropical Melissa will pass near, but to the southeast of, the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland late tonight, bringing the potential for some gusty winds and heavy rain. Later this weekend, Melissa is forecast to turn east-northeastward while interacting with a higher-latitude, upper-level low over the North Atlantic. Very little change has been made to the NHC track forecast, which lies very close to the average of the GFS and ECMWF deterministic models (GFEX). Global models indicate that Melissa will continue to be a large and strong extratropical cyclone for the next couple of days as it traverses the North Atlantic. Only gradual weakening is expected through the weekend, with the system forecast to have hurricane-force winds for another 24 h and still be a storm-force cyclone in 60 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is at the high end of the guidance suite through 60 hours. By early next week, global models show the large system weakening further as it begins to join up with a large and elongated area of low pressure over the far northeastern Atlantic, and the system should be absorbed and dissipated just beyond the 96-hour point. Key Messages: 1. Post-storm safety: Follow advice of local officials and avoid areas of downed power lines and flooding. Ensure generators are properly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from dwellings and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During clean up, be careful when using chainsaws and power tools. Drink plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 39.0N 60.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 01/0000Z 43.5N 55.2W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 01/1200Z 49.4N 48.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 02/0000Z 53.2N 41.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 02/1200Z 55.0N 35.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 03/0000Z 56.2N 29.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 03/1200Z 57.5N 24.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 04/1200Z 60.5N 16.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 31 2025000 FONT13 KNHC 311442 PWSAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025 1500 UTC FRI OCT 31 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X 88(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X 58(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 8 76(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X 19(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ILE ST PIERRE 34 5 7(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) BURGEO NFLD 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 31 Oct 2025 14:45:31 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 31 Oct 2025 15:22:34 GMT
We are frequently asked: How are we supposed to behave as a tourist
when we get surprised on the island?
Two simple rules:
1. Stay home.
2. Follow the orders of the Civil Protection authorities.
All our Casas have a solid construction base, none is made of wood.
Officially a hurricane starts when wind speed exceeds 118 Km/hour. But even at 50 Km/h persons are advised to seek protection.
Mercedes and Frank 
