Hurricane season: June through October/November
Sat, 20 Sep 2025 03:35:20 GMT
Source: NHC Atlantic
More info and current maps
370 ABNT20 KNHC 192318 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Gabrielle, located in the central tropical Atlantic. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some slow development of this system is possible through the middle to latter part of next week while it moves west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Bucci
...GABRIELLE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 19 the center of Gabrielle was located near 23.6, -57.2 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 19 2025000 WTNT32 KNHC 200245 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 19 2025 ...GABRIELLE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.6N 57.2W ABOUT 535 MI...855 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 760 MI...1220 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Gabrielle. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was located near latitude 23.6 North, longitude 57.2 West. Gabrielle is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A gradual turn towards the north-northwest is expected by Sunday, followed by a northward motion by Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Gabrielle is expected to pass east of Bermuda Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Gabrielle is expected to become a hurricane by Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Gabrielle can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. SURF: Swells generated by Gabrielle are expected to reach Bermuda soon and build through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Bucci
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 20 2025000 WTNT22 KNHC 200244 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025 0300 UTC SAT SEP 20 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 57.2W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......130NE 100SE 0SW 70NW. 4 M SEAS....240NE 180SE 90SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 57.2W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 56.7W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 24.7N 58.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 26.3N 59.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 28.0N 60.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 30.0N 61.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 32.0N 60.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 34.5N 58.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 38.9N 49.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 90SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 190SE 140SW 100NW. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 42.7N 35.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 60NW. 34 KT...190NE 210SE 180SW 120NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.6N 57.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 19 2025000 WTNT42 KNHC 200245 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 19 2025 Gabrielle still has the appearance of a sheared tropical storm. Before sunset, the low-level center was just west of the deep convection and recent bursts have partially obscured it now. A GPM microwave pass showed a couple bands curving around the eastern semicircle of the storm. Satellite Dvorak estimates have remained steady since the previous advisory and the intensity is held at 45 kt, closest to the TAFB classification of T3.0/45-kt. The storm is moving northwestward at 10 kt as it is steered by a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. In about a day, Gabrielle will turn to the north-northwest and the north while it moves between the western periphery of the ridge and a mid-latitude trough over the eastern United States. The storm should turn more towards the northeast and accelerate in the mid-latitude westerlies by early next week. The track guidance has a noticeably slower forward motion this cycle and by the end of the forecast period, is farther south. Overall, the latest NHC track forecast is slower than the previous prediction. It is also farther east for the first 48 hours, largely due to the initial position being farther north than expected. Interest in Bermuda should continue to monitor Gabrielle's progress since there is a roughly 20 percent chance of tropical-storm-force winds occurring on Bermuda. Gabrielle is expected to gradually strengthen as the environmental conditions become more conducive during the next few days. The system should reach hurricane strength by Sunday and is forecast to peak at 90 kt at 72 h. This forecast is closest to the corrected consensus aid, HCCA. It should be noted that several of the hurricane regional models still predict that Gabrielle could reach major hurricane strength by early next week. At the end of the forecast period, extratropical transition could be underway but with the southward adjustment to the track forecast, the official forecast does not explicitly call for it yet. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Gabrielle is forecast to become a hurricane by Sunday and pass east of Bermuda Sunday night and Monday. Interests on Bermuda should monitor Gabrielle's forecasts since it is too soon to specify the magnitude of potential wind and rainfall impacts. 2. Swells generated by Gabrielle are expected to reach Bermuda soon and build through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 23.6N 57.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 24.7N 58.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 26.3N 59.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 28.0N 60.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 30.0N 61.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 22/1200Z 32.0N 60.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 34.5N 58.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 38.9N 49.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 25/0000Z 42.7N 35.6W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 20 2025000 FONT12 KNHC 200245 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025 0300 UTC SAT SEP 20 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 12(21) X(21) X(21) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 20 Sep 2025 02:48:29 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 20 Sep 2025 03:21:12 GMT
We are frequently asked: How are we supposed to behave as a tourist
when we get surprised on the island?
Two simple rules:
1. Stay home.
2. Follow the orders of the Civil Protection authorities.
All our Casas have a solid construction base, none is made of wood.
Officially a hurricane starts when wind speed exceeds 118 Km/hour. But even at 50 Km/h persons are advised to seek protection.
Mercedes and Frank 
