Hurricane season: June through October/November
Mon, 04 Aug 2025 22:50:07 GMT
Source: NHC Atlantic
More info and current maps
490 ABNT20 KNHC 041731 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Dexter, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean. Central Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave located just off the west coast of Africa is currently producing minimal shower activity. As the wave moves west-northwestward over the next few days, environmental conditions are forecast to become favorable for gradual development. A tropical depression could form by the latter portion of this week as the system continues moving generally west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. Off the Southeastern United States: A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop in a day or two several hundred miles off the coast of the southeastern United States. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the middle or latter portion of this week as the system moves slowly westward to northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Dexter are issued under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Dexter are issued under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4. $$ Forecaster Papin
...DEXTER CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Aug 04 the center of Dexter was located near 36.1, -66.2 with movement NE at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Aug 04 2025545 WTNT34 KNHC 042039 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dexter Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042025 500 PM AST Mon Aug 04 2025 ...DEXTER CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.1N 66.2W ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM NNW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dexter was located near latitude 36.1 North, longitude 66.2 West. Dexter is moving toward the northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion is forecast to continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast over the next couple of days, and Dexter is likely to become a post-tropical cyclone by the middle to latter portion of this week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 04 2025000 WTNT24 KNHC 042037 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEXTER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042025 2100 UTC MON AUG 04 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 66.2W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 100SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 66.2W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.7N 66.8W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 37.1N 64.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 38.2N 62.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 39.2N 60.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 39.8N 57.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 40.7N 53.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 42.5N 48.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 45.0N 41.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 48.2N 29.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 130SE 80SW 0NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.1N 66.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Aug 04 2025000 WTNT44 KNHC 042130 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Dexter Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042025 500 PM AST Mon Aug 04 2025 There is not a lot new to report with Dexter this afternoon. The center remains partially exposed, with periodic bursts of deep convection firing off along the downshear-right side of the storm. This activity continues to struggle rotating upshear due to westerly vertical wind shear which has now increased above 20 kt. The 18 UTC Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were T3.0/45 kt and T2.0/30 kt respectively. Objective intensity estimates also range from 35 to 45 kt. Earlier scatterometer data received after the prior advisory only had a peak value of 33 kt. The initial intensity remains 40 kt for this advisory, a blend of all the various intensity estimates. There are several mesovorticies rotating around the mean center, but Dexter in general remains on a northeastward heading at 050/13 kt. A narrow mid-level ridge oriented northeast to southwest from the Azores to Bermuda should enable Dexter to continue moving northeastward to east-northeastward, as long as it remains vertically coherent. The vertical depth likely plays a role in Dexter's future forward motion, with significant along-track spread persisting in the track guidance this afternoon. The NHC track forecast is on the faster side of the guidance envelope, close to the most recent 12 UTC ECMWF forecast track. However, it remains possible that Dexter completely decouples from its mid-level circulation and misses phasing with the trough digging southward from Atlantic Canada. Instead of accelerating northeastward, this latter scenario could result in the storm slowing down as it becomes a shallow cyclone. For now, the latest NHC track forecast is close to the prior one. As shear continue to increase over the tropical cyclone, forecasted to be above 30 kt in 12 h, its window for further tropical intensification is closing. The intensity guidance is a bit lower this afternoon. In response, the NHC intensity forecast now holds Dexter at 40 kt until it undergoes extratropical transition sometime between 60-72 h, where a slight amount of intensification is still shown. The intensity forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope. As mentioned previously, Dexter's final structure remains quite uncertain near the end of the forecast period, and it is entirely possible the storm could become a remnant low instead of an extratropical cyclone by the latter half of this week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 36.1N 66.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 37.1N 64.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 38.2N 62.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 39.2N 60.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 39.8N 57.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 07/0600Z 40.7N 53.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 42.5N 48.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 08/1800Z 45.0N 41.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/1800Z 48.2N 29.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Papin
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 04 2025734 FONT14 KNHC 042038 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEXTER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042025 2100 UTC MON AUG 04 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEXTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 04 Aug 2025 20:42:45 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 04 Aug 2025 21:21:32 GMT
We are frequently asked: How are we supposed to behave as a tourist
when we get surprised on the island?
Two simple rules:
1. Stay home.
2. Follow the orders of the Civil Protection authorities.
All our Casas have a solid construction base, none is made of wood.
Officially a hurricane starts when wind speed exceeds 118 Km/hour. But even at 50 Km/h persons are advised to seek protection.
Mercedes and Frank 
